Monty Hall from the host's POV

The game: there are three doors, one hiding a good reward and two hiding a bad reward. The contestant chooses a door but does not open it. My job is to open one of the other doors, making sure to choose one which hides a bad reward. Then I offer the contestant the choice to switch their choice to the other, unchosen, unopened door. Should they?

If the contestant originally picked the “good” door, then I can open either of the other ones. No matter which I open, if they switch, they’ll get it wrong. So if their strategy is to switch, 13 they pick the good door originally and then lose by switching to the remaining bad door.

If they picked a bad door originally, my job is easy– I don’t have a choice, I just open the other bad door. Then if they switch, they are switching to the good door. So under the switching strategy, 23 of the time they pick a bad door and then switch to the good door.

So the switching strategy leads to 23 chances of success, up from the 13 chances of the don’t-switch strategy.

From my perspective, it seems clear why it’s even possible for their chances to increase: I look at which door hides what and in the situation where they picked a bad door, I basically flat out tell them which door to choose (by opening the only other bad door). Of course, they don’t know when they picked a bad door originally, but it’s most of the time, so they are well served by taking my hint.